CS Holding — Weekly Focus · October 2, 2026

This week the rules moved before the numbers did. US employers added just 29,000 jobs after the Fed's September hike, and Italy's new AI decree made missing human oversight on high-risk AI a criminal offence.

Temasek bought 9% of FSI's management company, which runs about EUR 5 billion for Italian mid-sized firms. OpenAI launched persistent agents that Europeans cannot use yet. Italmobiliare agreed to sell Capitelli at a EUR 36 million enterprise value with the Capitelli family keeping 10%, and a Polish report put a price on search-fund deals: six times EBITDA.

01 WILDCARD +29K JOBS

The US adds 29,000 jobs in September, and two earlier months get revised down

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September report this morning US time: 29,000 new nonfarm jobs and unemployment at 4.2%. The revisions matter as much as the headline. July moves from +21,000 to -10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000, 60,000 jobs fewer in total. The Fed raised rates in September, and before the release futures put roughly a one-in-four chance on a second hike in October; those bets fell after the data.

A US economy that slows just after its central bank raised rates is the most awkward mix for anyone financing an acquisition: expensive debt on the way in and less certain export demand for Italian SMEs that sell abroad. Today's number does not settle the end-of-month meeting, but it shifts the question from how high rates go to how well growth holds up.

02 AI D.LGS 160

From September 30, Italy makes skipping human oversight of high-risk AI a crime

Legislative Decree 160/2026 came into force on September 30. A new article 437-bis of the criminal code punishes with one to five years in prison anyone who omits safety or human-oversight measures on high-risk AI systems where this endangers life or safety, and a new article 25-vicies of Decree 231/2001 extends liability to the company itself, with fines of 600 to 1,000 quotas plus disqualification measures. The offence covers those who design, train and place high-risk systems on the market, and there is specific liability for a professional user who deliberately omits human oversight.

This week's data shows adoption running ahead of governance. Confapi Brescia reports that 52% of its member SMEs have already introduced AI, mostly for drafting and process optimisation, yet only 27% rate their own data as highly reliable. A POLIMI Graduate School of Management observatory of 612 managers finds only 13% fully agree that AI goals are clearly defined, and only 9% consider their organisation fully ready to lead mixed human and AI teams. In due diligence, AI governance is now a line item.

03 M&A ITALY EV EUR 36M

Italmobiliare agrees to sell Capitelli at EUR 36M, 3x its money, family keeps 10%

Italmobiliare signed a binding agreement to sell its 80% of cured-meats maker Capitelli Fratelli to French food group CA Animation at an enterprise value of EUR 36 million. Chairman Angelo Capitelli, the founder's son, sells a further 10% and keeps the remaining 10%. Over almost seven years of ownership revenue grew by more than 70% to EUR 24.7 million, and the exit is set to return three times the capital invested with a 20% IRR. Closing is expected by the fourth quarter.

The same week Finint Equity for Growth made its first exit, selling Proteko to Fremman Capital after eight add-ons took revenue from EUR 10.5 million to about EUR 30 million, with the founders keeping significant stakes. KPMG's nine-month read describes a more selective market: 910 deals, down 17.5%. Fewer deals overall, and in both of this week's exits the family or founders stay in the capital.

04 SEARCH FUND 6.0X EBITDA

Alcor buys Promotech, and Poland puts a price on search-fund deals

Alcor, the permanent-capital holding Eraldo Cavalli founded two years ago after serving as COO of Yeldo, has taken control of Promotech Italia, a Viareggio company that lights yachts over 40 metres, luxury stores and hotels. Founders Giampaoli and Luppichini keep operational control and a significant stake, Banco BPM provides the financing, and the plan is to add complementary businesses and grow abroad. Price and stake were not disclosed.

The price benchmark comes from Warsaw. The Search Funds in Poland 2026 report counts 13 search funds since 2018, with 8 acquisitions and 3 exits. The median deal has about EUR 9.5 million of revenue and EUR 3.3 million of EBITDA at an enterprise value of about EUR 15.5 million, or 6.0x. On average the structure is 40% equity, 45% senior debt and 12.5% vendor participation, present in 75% of deals. A young market, like Italy's, with numbers you can compare.

BIG PICTURE

What ties the four stories together is a change in the rules ahead of a change in the numbers. The Fed has to reread a labour market that has stalled, SMEs using AI now answer in criminal law for oversight, and in this week's Italian deals the seller kept a stake. For anyone buying an SME that means dearer leverage, due diligence that covers AI, and a price negotiated partly on the stake the seller keeps.

In the companies you are looking at, has anyone mapped where AI touches high-risk processes? And how much of the price are you willing to leave in the hands of a seller who stays?